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Over the next decade, with the goal of focusing in earnest on the Pacific and China, the Marine Corps plans "sweeping changes" as it reorganizes its forces.
The naval expeditionary force wants to shrink its numbers by 12,000 (186,000 are in the Corps now); get rid of its tanks, leaving that capability to the Army; and specialize in the littoral, or nearshore, by boosting its ability to sink ships from shore in the missile fight that one day might come to the islands that dot the Western Pacific.
Divestiture of traditional capabilities would result in a potential savings of $12 billion — to be reallocated toward emerging threats posed foremost by China.
The Force Design 2030 road map released in March by Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger is still ongoing, and all of the ramifications aren't clear yet for Hawaii, a key forward-based location.
But one announced element of the plan would see the loss of AH-1Z attack and UH-1Y Venom utility helicopters that are part of Marine Light Attack Helicopter Squadron 367, with the relocation of the unit to Camp Pendleton in California.
The Marine Corps helicopter squadrons typically have about 15 AH-1Z Vipers (formerly Cobras) and 12 UH-1Y Venom (formerly Hueys) and approximately 350 personnel.
The Force Design report describes progress on Ber-ger's watch as the Marine Corps prepares for the "sweeping changes needed" to meet, principally, the challenges it faces in the Pacific.
The 2018 National Defense Strategy redirected the Marine Corps' mission from countering extremists in the Middle East to "great power" peer-level competition with China and Russia.
In a December essay in War on the Rocks, a foreign policy and national security web publication, Berger wrote that the Marine Corps "is not optimized to meet the bold demands" of that strategy.
"While our ranks are filled with phenomenal Marines — warriors who are smarter and more adaptable than ever — the design of our force, how we organize for combat, our equipment, and our warfighting capabilities, are no longer aligned to the potential adversaries America faces," he said.
Berger, who served as commander of Marine Corps Forces Pacific at Camp H.M. Smith from 2016 to 2018, said he aims to fix that.
Based on a 10-year horizon, Berger said, "we are designing a force for naval expeditionary warfare in actively contested spaces" — meaning under attack by sophisticated missiles.
Berger also wants improved ability to take on China in "gray zone" challenges that fall below the level of conflict.
Marine Corps Combat Development Command said the Corps will reduce the number of infantry battalions from 24 to 21; artillery cannon batteries from 21 to five; and amphibious vehicle companies from six to four (one of which is at Kaneohe Bay); as well as reduce tilt rotor, attack and heavy-lift squadrons.
Berger said in his previously published "commandant's planning guidance," that III Marine Expeditionary Force, headquartered in Okinawa, Japan, "will become our main focus- of-effort" with the ability "to persist inside an adversary's weapon systems threat range."
Per that guidance and Pacific refocus, the Marine Corps will have three new littoral regiments. The "Pacific posture" will be augmented by three Marine Expeditionary Units with more than 2,000 Marines each operating from a variety of unconventional ship groupings and austere bases that are harder to target.
One likely scenario would include the Marines having the ability to rapidly deploy to an assortment of islands with High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System batteries armed with long-range anti-ship missiles.
Repeated war-gaming, meanwhile, has borne out the fast-moving strategy the Marines want to adopt as a key to success.
"We will equip our Marines with mobile, low-signature sensors and weapons that can provide a landward complement to Navy capabilities for surface warfare, antisubmarine warfare, air and missile defense, and airborne early warning," the service said in the force design paper. "And in partnership with the Navy, our units will possess littoral maneuver capabilities to include high-speed, long-range, low-signature craft capable of maneuvering Marines for a variety of missions."
The divestiture would include three infantry battalions that each have about 1,000 Marines, and the "redesign of remaining infantry battalions in the direction of greater lethality and flexibility" with a proposed reduction of 200 Marines per battalion.
Marine Corps Base Hawaii had about 8,800 Marines in 2018 at Kaneohe Bay and Camp Smith, according to the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. Three infantry battalions are located at Kaneohe Bay.
Berger said he seeks the divestiture of all of the tanks in the Marine Corps. "Heavy ground armor capability will continue to be provided by the U.S. Army," he said.
"I am not so naive to think that undertaking such a bold endeavor will be straightforward," Berger wrote in December. "But, the urgency of the challenge before us compels action."
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